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Then go to Tools -> Options and click on the Customize Tab Unzip the folder, then locate the folder into the Adobe Reader installation folder (c:\Program Files (x86)\Adobe\Adobe Reader 8.0\bin) Note the key provided. This is a key to activate the program. If you don't have Adobe Acrobat 8 installed, then you can use it in a Mac to install it. The Economic Impact of the New Virus Outbreak on China: Scenario Analysis Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of the new virus outbreak on China’s economic performance. We construct two different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models of the Chinese economy to simulate the epidemic and to evaluate its impact on economic growth. A DSGE model is an econometric model of the macroeconomy that combines the ideas of dynamic general equilibrium and stochastic equilibrium. In DSGE models, variables such as wages, prices, production, consumption, and investment are generally aggregated into macroeconomic variables that are not affected by specific shocks. A DSGE model can be used to estimate the effects of the new virus outbreak on China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but its application is limited. As the number of confirmed cases continues to increase, the economic implications are significant. Using the two models, we forecast a 1.7% fall in China’s GDP growth in 2020. Also, we find that the new virus will significantly delay the recovery of the Chinese economy. We contribute to the literature on DSGE models by calibrating two alternative DSGE models for the Chinese economy. The data from 1991 to 2018 of China’s total output, GDP growth, inflation, real exchange rate, unemployment rate, and real labor and saving rates are used as the input for the calibration. The two models yield a convergence coefficient of 0.85 in the stationary regime. The first model is used to analyze the impact of the new virus outbreak on China’s GDP growth. We project the trend for Chinese GDP growth in the future. The forecast shows a 0.5% fall in China’s GDP growth in 2020. The fall is mainly due to a slower expansion of China’s manufacturing sector. Also, the fall will be followed by a recovery in 2021. The second model is used to analyze the impact of the new virus outbreak on China’s real exchange rate, which is the base
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